Brain Bias-Gambler’s Fallacy

As you watch the Sweet Sixteen swing into action this weekend you’ll probably see a player who gets “hot.” This is especially true with regard to streaky 3 point shooters. You’ll also see this at the craps table when a player gets on a roll with the dice. Most folks will swear the streak itself can impact each shot or the roll of the dice. Behavioral psychologists call this the “Gambler’s Fallacy” or the “Monte Carlo Bias.” And several scientific studies show that this is false. There is no effect a single shot that is successful has on a subsequent shot. So when you hear Verne Lundquist start talking about a player “on a roll”, you can tell your tv that old Verne is spouting a Gambler’s Fallacy.

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