Brain Bias-Gambler’s Fallacy

As you watch the Sweet Sixteen swing into action this weekend you’ll probably see a player who gets “hot.” This is especially true with regard to streaky 3 point shooters. You’ll also see this at the craps table when a player gets on a roll with the dice. Most folks will swear the streak itself can impact each shot or the roll of the dice. Behavioral psychologists call this the “Gambler’s Fallacy” or the “Monte Carlo Bias.” And several scientific studies show that this is false. There is no effect a single shot that is successful has on a subsequent shot. So when you hear Verne Lundquist start talking about a player “on a roll”, you can tell your tv that old Verne is spouting a Gambler’s Fallacy.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s